http://www.marctomarket.com/2015/03/fou ... s-key.htmlThe most important event next week is the FOMC meeting followed by a press conference by Yellen. In order to maximize its room to maneuver, we expect the FOMC statement will drop the patience that has characterized its forward guidance since last December.
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We continue to see June as the most likely time frame for lift-off, but recognize the risk of a short delay, as the Fed did when it began the tapering in December 2013 instead of September as many expected.
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If the Fed does not drop the word patience, expectations of a June hike will ease considerably. This would likely spur a dollar correction and a rally in US stocks and bonds. If the Fed drops the word patience but softens this inflation expectation, this would also be a dovish development and weigh on the dollar and lift stocks and bonds.
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The BOJ also meets. The aggressive monetary easing continues. The boost to inflation has not materialized, and the economy itself continues to disappoint.
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It is still not clear what the BOJ will do with its 2% inflation target for the fiscal year that starts next month.
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The fact that the euro is falling (not to mention the momentum and depth) means that the euro area's current account surplus is being more than recycled. It is particularly difficult to pin down precisely what capital is leaving. To the extent that foreign investors are selling some of their European bonds to the ECB, they seem to be buying European equities. However, there has been great interest in hedging out the currency risk in long-only equity funds. In addition, European investors themselves appear to be moving savings out of the euro.
Oraz o dolarze EDIT: i antydolarach:
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