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DOLLAR: Barclays strategists Aroop Chatterjee and Yuki Sakasai see scope for the
Fed announcement Weds to be USD positive for several reasons. 1) The likely
decision to taper (Barclays US economists expect the Fed to taper its asset
purchases to $70bn ($35 bn in UST and $35bn in MBS, with forward guidance
unchanged)from $85bn. 2) The decision on the unemployment rate threshold that
will be associated with a fed funds hike, when it comes. While "it has been
suggested that the Fed could keep interest rates from moving higher (especially
in the short end of the curve) by adjusting the threshold around the UER,
presumably to 6.0% from 6.5%," Barclays sees this as unlikely. 3) the Fed's
updated economic forecasts with end 2016 unveiled for the first time (Barclays
expects a median target FF rate of 3% for end 2016). 4) Bernanke's tone, which
will stress the conditional nature of Fed policy. "This may serve to dampen the
market response in the short term; however, a strong underlying growth picture,
improving labor market conditions and progress on inflation all mean that the
medium-term appreciation trend in the USD is intact," the strategists say.