Kod: Zaznacz cały
Gaps 24 Jul 2016 21:10 GMT
Pair Now Friday Close Gap
AUDJPY 79.14 79.19 -5
AUDUSD 0.7461 0.7463 -3
EURAUD 1.4701 1.4703 -2
EURCHF 1.0832 1.0830 2
EURGBP 0.8352 0.8372 -20
EURJPY 116.41 116.49 -8
EURUSD 1.0971 1.0976 -5
GBPJPY 139.34 139.10 24
GBPUSD 1.3133 1.3107 26
NZDUSD 0.6993 0.6998 -5
USDCAD 1.3133 1.3127 6
USDCHF 0.9874 0.9867 7
USDJPY 106.10 106.12 -2Na razie kabel próbuje odbijać się z dołka do jakiego powtórnie dotarł w zeszłym tygodniu. Bardzo interesujące to miejsce bo już dwa razy stoczono tam zaciekłe bitwy które zatrzymały szybkie spadki po złych wiadomościach.gives expert qualitative opinion from senior manufacturing executives, on past and expected trends in output, exports, prices, costs, investment intentions, business confidence and capacity utilization.
The FOMC statement is likely to recognize that since the June meeting the economy has evolved largely in line with what the Fed expected, or hoped for, as the case might be. Nearly every piece of economic data since late-June have been better than expected. This includes the non-manufacturing ISM, job creation, retail sales, industrial and manufacturing output, and existing home sales. Headline and core CPI were also firmer than anticipated.
The statement is likely to recognize the resilience of the capital markets since the UK referendum. Many equity markets, including the US benchmarks, have made new highs. The drop in long-term bond yields have not fully recovered but have stabilized and the 10-year breakeven has returned to levels above the 1.50% that were seen a week before the UK referendum. Meanwhile, the yuan, which was a source of investor angst last summer, is no longer driving the capital markets, even though its depreciation is larger and its equity market is among the worst performers this year.
On balance, the FOMC statement is unlikely to say anything that closes the door on a September move. It wants to keep the market on notice that as the Fed's objectives are approached, gradually removing accommodation is appropriate. The data dependent stance seems to mean the alignment of three stars: continued improvement in the US labor market, favorable consumption patterns, and a stable international environment.
A recent Reuters poll found about half of the 100 economists surveyed expect a hike in Q4, which really means December since the November meeting is too close to the national election. The other half is split between a Q3 rate hike (September) and some time in 2017. That said, two primary dealers anticipate no hike until the end of 2017.
Of course, it is difficult to have much confidence in predictions of what the Kuroda will do. He himself might not know. We suspect the risk is greater that Kuroda disappoints expectations rather than announcing another large burst of monetary stimulus.
http://news.forexlive.com/!/what-would- ... n-20160725The latest headlines showed the Japanese government tossing another $28B onto the stimulus bon fire and it was good for about 30 pips in USD/JPY.
Co do zasady jak się umacniają antydolary to jen się osłabia. Dolar i Jen to są traktowane jako safe haven. Możliwe że coś innego miałeś na myśli. Jak usd/jpy rośnie (kupują) to jen się osłabia...Co obecnie widzę na wykresach?
Duże prawdopodobieństwo zyskiwania antydolarów, w tym Jena.
Ale antydolary straciły jak napisałemNie wiew, może przeczytaj jeszcze raz ze zrozumieniem, dokładnie to miałem na myśli, Jen zyskał jak widać
http://news.forexlive.com/!/pound-under ... e-20160726Increased expectations of a rate cut next week from the BOE as MPC member Weale turns from hawk to dove.
Good buying interest awaits at 1.3050 and that may prove a tough one to crack but you can keep selling the rallies.
Teraz to nie rozumiem.Spekulant pisze:Ale antydolary straciły jak napisałemNie wiew, może przeczytaj jeszcze raz ze zrozumieniem, dokładnie to miałem na myśli, Jen zyskał jak widać
http://news.forexlive.com/!/forexlive-n ... l-20160727The initial reaction was higher in the US dollar across the board. USD/JPY hit 106.00 and EUR/USD fell to 1.0960, just above support at the post-Brexit lows. But the moves faded quickly and then reversed in the opposite direction about 30 minutes after the Fed.
To me, it speaks of profit taking on a crowded USD-long position but others might argue the Fed wasn't hawkish enough to really put Sept on the table.
The Monte Paschi house of cards looks awfully shaky as banks decline to guarantee cash boost
Thu 28 Jul 2016 17:14:46 GMT
Author: Ryan Littlestone | Category: News
Author: Ryan Littlestone
Banks decline proposal to guarantee €5bn cash call say Reuters sources
Morgan Stanley, Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo rebuff a proposal to guarantee Monti Paschi's €5bn cash call
A consortium of other banks expected to be offered inclusion is made up of, JPM, Citigroup, BOAML, Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse & Mediobanca
Sources say that even more banks are needed
This current scenario is going to put the European banking system and its new bank backstops to the test. Something they hoped to avoid so soon after the crisis.
Monti Paschi was hoping to get this €5bn in raised capital in place before the results of tomorrow's stress tests. That's looking a very long shot right now.
Japan's MOF has prepared a draft statement in the event of BOJ action - Reuters
Thu 28 Jul 2016 17:47:59 GMT
Author: Ryan Littlestone | Category: Central Banks
Author: Ryan Littlestone
Another sources story
Sources add that the BOJ considering specific easing steps tonight as they are under pressure from the Japanese government.
And there goes 105.00 in USDJPY. I hope we don't enter the silly hours where we get lots of these types of stories, otherwise things are going to get messy.
Well, unless they go in my favour and then bring em on ;-)
ForexLive @ForexLive 2m2 minutes ago
#USDJPY up 45 pips to 105.25 on #Japan MOF #BOJ story.
Welcome to the crazy zone
Here's the details of Japan's MOF/BOJ statement draft
Thu 28 Jul 2016 18:23:30 GMT
Author: Ryan Littlestone | Category: Central Banks
Author: Ryan Littlestone
This is what everyone is getting in a flap about
"We welcome the BOJ's decision and will deploy all necessary policy steps, including a scheduled big stimulus package"
The details of the statement are largely irrelevant, it's the fact they've potentially chosen to draft something adds to the suggestion that the BOJ will act tonight. Why draft anything unless you know something's coming?
There will only be three key moves over the BOJ
Thu 28 Jul 2016 20:01:22 GMT
Author: Ryan Littlestone | Category: News
Author: Ryan Littlestone
The BOJ is going to be messy one way or another but there is only three things you need to watch
I've been thinking about the possible moves tonight and it I can sum them up in three points
1. The BOJ don't do anything - Yen pairs fall hard.
2. They act - Yen pairs rally as soon as the headlines hit. The market won't read the details in the first couple of minutes, it will be buy first, ask questions later.
3. The market reads the small print - After the initial reaction, the market will look into the details and decipher what they mean. This will either cause yen pairs to rise further or fall if the market is disappointed
Use these three points as a guide to any trades you are in as they could save you from getting whipped about. If you are long yen pairs into the decision and you get that initial jump, I'd suggest thinking about locking in or taking some off quickly so that you don't give it all back if the market goes against you on part 3.
For no action, the trade is pretty clear.
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