Trading 2 - 7 pażdziernika 2016

[alx]

Witam,

tydzień zaczynamy od Brexitu - pan May zapowiedziała, że uruchomi procedurę wyjścia do końca marca przyszłego roku - będą luki na parach z funtem i może trochę risk on bo to w sumie pozytywna wiadomość.

Do luk może się dołożyć jeszcze mniejsza płynność niż zazwyczaj - Australia i Chiny mają wolne.
W Europie zaś Niemcy.

W tym tygodniu mamy posiedzenie RBA po którym nikt nie spodziewa się żadnych zmian.
Ponad to raporty PMI z rozmaitych krajów i na koniec NFP który raczej nic nowego nie wniesie nawet jakby wypadł zaskakująco dobry czy zły - Fed najwyraźniej zamierza zrobić podwyżkę w grudniu i o ile nic poważnego się nie wydarzy, pojedyncze raporty nie będą miały na to wpływu.

Oprócz zapowiedzi Brexitu funt będzie miał jeszcze poskakać w poniedziałek i piątek - PMI i inne.

Poza tym nie widać nic specjalnego na horyzoncie więc poza funtem można się ogólnie spodziewać kontynuacji dryfowania.

[alx]

Expect the pound to open up lower in Asia and remain ( no reverse pun intended!) on the back-foot as I have been recommending for more than a while now.

Some of this confirmation will have been factored in though as rumours have been circulating for a while and with a market essentially short we can expect to see some profit coming off the table at some point. Keep selling those rallies though as the short play has a long way to run yet.

http://news.forexlive.com/!/uk-to-trigg ... 7-20161002

[alx]

Bardzo wczesne kwotacje:
http://news.forexlive.com/!/monday-morn ... s-20161002

[alx]

To funtowi na pewno nie pomoże:
http://news.forexlive.com/!/uk-press-sa ... r-20161002

[alx]

Kod: Zaznacz cały

Gaps 2 Oct 2016 20:41 GMT
Pair	Now	Friday Close	Gap
AUDJPY	77.49	77.59	-10
AUDUSD	0.7661	0.7659	2
EURAUD	1.4654	1.4675	-21
EURCHF	1.0918	1.0919	-1
EURGBP	0.8691	0.8662	29
EURJPY	113.62	113.92	-30
EURUSD	1.1229	1.1242	-13
GBPJPY	130.70	131.49	-79
GBPUSD	1.2918	1.2976	-58
NZDUSD	0.7279	0.7282	-3
USDCAD	1.3117	1.3126	-9
USDCHF	0.9723	0.9713	10
USDJPY	101.18	101.33	-15

[alx]

Funt wypadł przez okno...

[alx]

GBPUSD finds a few buyers after posting 31 year lows
Tue 4 Oct 2016 07:58:33 GMT
Author: Mike Paterson | Category: News

Author: Mike Paterson

The pound is still under pressure but there's a few buyers around for the moment

Bids/Support at 1.2750 holding so far with lows of 1.2757 and now up around 1.2780.

The pair is getting a little help from EURGBP which is struggling to hold fresh 3-year highs above 0.8750

Expect offers/res into 1.2800 now given its pivotal role this morning. More stops below 1.2750 as per the order board

UK construction PMI coming out at 08.30 GMT

[alx]

Biedny ten funt - co z tego, że pojawił się następny byczy PMI kiedy "hard Brexit" ciągnie go w dół?
Lewarowane rekiny znów zwietrzyły krew i odbicia są/będą sprzedawane.

[magura2004]

http://news.forexlive.com/!/ecb-said-to ... s-20161004


http://news.forexlive.com/!/ecb-draghi- ... k-20161004

[alx]

Nic z tego

[alx]

Ale za to dolar i jen wreszcie się trochę ruszyły, w przeciwne strony co najlepiej widać na USDJPY.
Jedno i drugie się rusza co robi ruch na innych parach.
Nie ma co narzekać na nudę.

[magura2004]

http://news.forexlive.com/!/im-selling- ... e-20161004 dobry jest i mało brakowało a by SL zaliczył

[alx]

Ja jakoś nie jestem przekonany do sprzedawania Edka w tym miejscu.
Owszem, trochę spadł, głównie pociągnięty przez dolara.
Ale nadal nic konkretnego z tego nie wynika, a jak uda mu się utrzymać w rozkroku do końca dnia to technicznie będzie to wyglądało na kolejne szybkie kupienie dołka w konsoli wzmacniające tę konsolę od dołu.

[magura2004]

http://www.money.pl/gielda/wiadomosci/a ... 64967.html

[alx]

EURUSD orders 6 Oct
Thu 6 Oct 2016 07:45:02 GMT
Author: Mike Paterson | Category: Forex Orders

Author: Mike Paterson

Currently 1.1185 on session lows as with some general euro selling noted

Plenty of offers building again above 1.1220 as ECB tapering-talk subsides

Offers: 1.1220 1.1235 1.1250 1.1280 1.1300 (strong) 1.1320 1.1350

Bids: 1.1175-80 1.1150-60 1.1125-30 1.1100 1.1080 1.1050

Może wystarczy na kilkanaście pips.

[alx]

Everyone is brushing aside the ECB news but the first reaction is always denial
Wed 5 Oct 2016 19:49:02 GMT
Author: Adam Button | Category: Central Banks

Author: Adam Button

The ECB sources story has been roundly dismissed but Draghi could want to shock the market

After the OPEC deal, I wrote about the denial in the market. If you watch the financial news networks the next day, every analyst on there was saying how nothing had changed and that the market was still oversupplied.

That may be partly true, but something had changed. OPEC wasn't dead and there was a new risk that they might deliver something. Oil is up 9% since then.

Is the same thing happening after the ECB leak on tapering purchases.

Analysts have roundly responded that all the taper talk is theoretical and no one is changing any kind of forecast.

Fair enough. Unlike the OPEC announcement, the ECB leak was ambiguous on timing.

But from where I stand, the risks are higher than they were yesterday that the ECB isn't going to be buying as many bonds as we thought.

The Italian bond market has certainly noticed:

The first stage is always denial but if Draghi hints at any kind or taper in his weekend appearance at the IMF; or even if he doesn't deny it, then there is plenty of reason to expect a higher euro from here (if not against the red-hot USD, then elsewhere).

EUR/JPY anyone?

[alx]

Ale najpierw comiesięczna zabawa w NFP...

[magura2004]

GS znowu ponowił swoje projekcje na 1:1 w 12 miesięcy (edek)

Wysłane z mojego LG-D855 przy użyciu Tapatalka

[alx]

What is it going to take to move the euro?
Thu 6 Oct 2016 10:44:59 GMT
Author: Ryan Littlestone | Category: News

Author: Ryan Littlestone

The most traded currency has become the most boring currency

It's really saying something when even a big story about the ECB tapering only brings about a 50 pip chop over an hour. Whatever your view on the taper story you can't argue with the price action. So what will it take to get the euro moving one way or another?

EURUSD daily chart [zob. linkę niżej]

Technically, you could fill this chart with many valid trend lines to suit different timeframes but I'll try and stick to the ones I think are most pertinent right now. What they do show is that the euro is being held within a very tight range and is unwilling to move anywhere right now.

That might not last too much longer as we still have two ECB meetings to go and already there some pressure being put on the December meeting in lieu of the upcoming QE end date. The next ECB meeting is the 18th and that's where Draghi will really be pushed on the taper thing, if he doesn't touch on it sooner at his IMF appearance or elsewhere. Even so, the clock is conspiring to bring the question of QE to a head in March, and it's between now and then that the euro might finally wake up and make a real move.

Until that happens, the lines are well drawn and can be traded appropriately. Right now it's not a market to try and grab 100's of pips on each trade but there good money to be made on 30-50 pip swings between the levels.

http://news.forexlive.com/!/what-is-it- ... s-20161006

[magura2004]

Jednym słowem coś może się wydarzyć