Trading? 6 - 11 listopada 2016 Trump vs. Clinton

[alx]

risk ok na otwarciu w USA - jak można zresztą było przewidywać:

[alx]

dla tych co czują, że koniecznie muszą coś zrobić:

Election 2016 strategy: Buy the early results, sell the network calls
Mon 7 Nov 2016 19:01:04 GMT
Author: Adam Button | Category: News

Author: Adam Button

The networks are the last ones to know

One strategy for trading the US election results is to go with the early momentum. If that's the case it would likely be Clinton winning Florida or South Carolina. At that point, which is sometime around 7-8 pm ET, financial markets will begin to aggressively price in a Hillary Clinton win.

That momentum will be sustained by continued confirmation as early results and exit polls continue moving westward. By that time, it should be a foregone conclusion because there is no chance Trump wins a west coast state.

However, the networks won't likely call the result until 11 pm ET when California polls close. At that point, expect one small, final push in Clinton-related trades. That's the moment to fade them as profit-taking sparks a retracement.

Here are the times the Associate Press has called it, and they tend to be slightly ahead of the big TV networks:

1996: 9 pm ET
2000: A few days later
2004 11:19 am, the following day
2008 11:00 pm ET
2012 11:38 pm ET

That's exactly how the Brexit trade played out. The bottom had fallen out of sterling and there was one last kick when TV networks and newspapers made the call but there was a bottom then that lasted for a number of hours.

If no winner can be determined on election night, I think the only trade is to head to the sidelines and wait for headlines.

[alx]

Wygrała Clinton 4:2
http://www.rp.pl/Wybory-w-USA/161109299 ... denta.html

[Tomasz-20021]

tu mozecie na zywo sledzic kursy bf

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/# ... .107373419

[Tomasz-20021]

kkk.jpg

[alx]

Nie będzie "brexitowej" niespodzianki

[magura2004]

http://technical-analysis.forexlive.com ... e-20161108

[alx]

A tymczasem w cieniu wielkich wydarzeń Brexitowej przepychanki ciąg dalszy.
Funt korzysta z chwili mimo, że to nic nie zmienia.
http://news.forexlive.com/!/uk-supreme- ... l-20161108

[Tomasz-20021]

a tu na biezaco procentowa przewaga. Clinton wystrzelila

PS: a ne to ja cos poieszalem - to tylko prognoza :/

http://www.270towin.com/maps/bW03R

[alx]

Zaczyna się:

[alx]

W Nowym Jorku dopiero wczesne popołudnie ale już mówią, że Clinton prawdopodobnie wygrała na Florydzie - jednym z kilku zalewie kluczowych w tym głosowaniu stanów.
Co widać zreszta po zachowaniu walut i akcji: risk on.

[alx]

Nie ma lekko:

The latest VoteCastr data from swing states

Updated: 3:48 p.m. E.T.

Florida

83.9 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 48 percent
Trump: 45 percent

Colorado:

80.3 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 46 percent
Trump: 43 percent

Iowa:

66.5 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 45 percent
Trump: 46 percent

Wisconsin:

62 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 48 percent
Trump: 43 percent

Nevada:

68.8 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 46 percent
Trump: 45 percent

Ohio:

73.7 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 45 percent
Trump: 46 percent

Pennsylvania

63.2 percent of expected total voters
Hillary: 48 percent
Trump: 45 percent

What it means: VoteCastr’s latest projections show that the race has tightened in multiple swing states. In both Ohio and Iowa, Trump has a narrow lead. In Florida, Nevada, Colorado, and Pennsylvania, Clinton maintains a lead, but it has narrowed from four points to three points.

Clinton holds an estimated five point advantage in Wisconsin, with 62 percent of expected voters observed thus far.

Więcej i na żywo:
https://news.vice.com/story/live-electi ... votecastry

[alx]

Gut-check time: What if Trump actually pulled this off?
Tue 8 Nov 2016 22:31:32 GMT
Author: Adam Button | Category: News

Author: Adam Button

The first exit polls are starting to creep in

Some early exit polls are out and they focus on things like favorables and demographics. For instance, Trump is ahead 1 point among whites with college degrees. That compared to Romney, who won that demographic by 14 points.

Meanwhile, the same exit poll shows Trump up by 36 points among whites without college degrees compared to 26 points for Romney.

Is there anything to take away yet. Not much. There haven't been any shock numbers to cross and that's why the market is still so comfortable the Clinton is going to win.

But it also leaves the market vulnerable. All it will take is one set of early results showing unexpectedly strong results for Trump and parts of the market will hit the panic button.

If he were to win Florida, there will be a race into the yen, Swiss franc and the euro.

At the moment, the market is giving off the impression that it is extremely comfortable, but that could flip in a flash.

[alx]

A jeżeliby się na końcu okazało, że wynik głosowania jest wyrównany to...
http://news.forexlive.com/!/black-swan- ... e-20161108

[alx]

Tutaj lepiej widać jak to wygląda w kluczowych stanach - na razie Clinton ma mała przewagę:
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election ... acker.html

[alx]

US election - Polls close in Florida, Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina and Vermont
Wed 9 Nov 2016 00:01:16 GMT
Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Should start to get results trickling in very soon indeed
Be careful of early results ...

Trump has won Kentucky ... as expected


Projections ....

Trump to win Indiana
Clinton win in Vermont

Późno już, trzeba spać..

[magura2004]

http://news.forexlive.com/!/trying-to-f ... s-20161109

Uciekają....

[alx]

Trump prowadzi - nasi rządzący niech lepiej szybko szykują plan B bo kolejny ”sojusznik" im ucieka...

[alx]

Świat się boi, Comparic atakowany DDOSem albo co:
504 Gateway Time-out
The server didn't respond in time.

[alx]

panika... jak można było zresztą przypuszczać.