Trading 18 - 24 listopada 2013

[akhh]

Opcje wygasające 22 listopada:


USDJPY 99.50 (USD500m) 100.00 (USD600m) 100.50 100.60 ( USD500m) 100.65 (USD400m) 101.00 (USD1bln) 101.10
EURUSD 1.3445 1.3450 1.3470 1.3475 1.3490 1.3500 1.3510
GBPUSD 1.6100 1.6150
AUDUSD 0.9250 0.9300 0.9325
USDCAD 1.0425 1.0430 1.0500 1.0560 1.0585
NZDUSD 0.8300
EURJPY 135.00 136.00
EURGBP 0.8325


Znowu na USD/JPY może być ciekawie.

[alx]

Orderbook:
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/fxbeat/art ... 946f8661ce
Równie ciekawe rzeczy dzieją się na funcie...

[alx]

Downgrading JPY, AUD Forecasts

The Bank of Japan is likely to ease policy further in April, but investors have only just begun to position for this outcome. So we raise our USDJPY forecasts to 103 (1m) and 105 (3m) – up from 101 and 103 previously.
Governor Kuroda has boosted core inflation to +0.7% y/y by doubling the monthly pace of JGB purchases (Chart 1). Progress so far looks consistent with hitting the 2% target on schedule in two years. But UBS Japan economist, Daiju Aoki, expects inflation will struggle to accelerate from here. By April 2014, the trajectory may have begun to veer noticeably off track (Chart 2).
More easing seems likely then and Governor Kuroda may have started to lay the groundwork for this already, emphasising again overnight that additional steps would be taken if downside risks to the 2% target materialise.
Although the BoJ is already buying 70% of gross JGB issuance (and all of the net new JGB issuance) we see scope for the pace of purchases to increase further still. The ETF and REIT purchase programs also have room to expand.

Elsewhere the Australian dollar looks increasingly vulnerable as the Fed prepares to taper. The RBA’s tolerance of persistent currency strength seems to be wearing thin too with the mining investment boom peak now upon us.
Rhetoric has already intensified, and on Thursday Governor Stevens refused to rule out ‘large-scale intervention’ entirely. The latest data also show the central bank may have sold Australian dollars into the FX market on a small-scale in October (See FX Comment “Has the RBA intervened?” dated Nov 21st 2013).
Putting all this together, the outlook for the Australian dollar seems challenging and we lower our AUDUSD forecasts to 0.92 (1m) and 0.90 (3m), down from 0.95 and 0.93 previously.
Our long-term end-2014 forecasts remain unchanged at 110 for USDJPY and 0.85 for AUDUSD.

Szczegółami w tych prognozach 1m i 3m to ja bym się nie za bardzo przejmował bo UBS ma niezbyt dobrą historię takich rzeczy ale ogólny kierunek jest ok.

[alx]

Z tym, że trzeba tez wziąć pod uwagę, że ten tydzień który dał tak dobrze zarobić na wielu rzeczach właśnie się kończy.
Może być jakaś realizacja zysków.